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Second Week Looks Much Better for BaseballTout

Posted: 2020-08-06 09:21:59 (ET)    [ 274 views ]

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Last week I stated that the ERAs, Averages and Win-Loss appeared to be the reason for the slow start.  That now appears to be correct, as we have rebounded to a more familiar look at the prediction accuracy percentages.  

For pitchers for whom we have historical data, we are entering their developed ERA either for 2019, or career numbers if their first starts are out of line with reality.  New pitchers get more of an MLB average ERA to begin, which eliminates some of the unrealistic predictions until the number of games provides those realistic ERAs. 

VMI's hits to strikes thrown percentage for each of the various pitches within the pitcher's mix seems to be proving that game focus is more of a factor than is pre-season practice.  This would make sense, however this is the first year the teams did not play a preseason against their opponents, so in the first week we were only able to guess what may happen.  

We are seeing some pitchers unwittingly throw many reverse pitches when a tight pitcher would have been more effective, but that is typical.  The performances against the high minus VMI and/or the high plus VMI are extremely telling when one looks at the individual pitches.  

 

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