Posted: 2020-12-03 10:18:15 (ET) [ 368 views ]
For 2021 we are going to attempt to expand the capability of VMI's Pitch-Mix "Rating." I couldn't come up with a more suitable name for the calculation we introduced in 2018. The Pitch-Mix is extremely important in baseball from high school competition through the professional ranks. As you, as well as, everyone experienced with playing or observing the sport knows, a pitcher must change the speed, trajectory and location of his pitches or the hitter will make him pay. So, our pitch-mix formula looks at:
1) which pitch is the pitcher's primary or go to pitch
2) which pitch does he use to create groundball outs;
3) the type of pitch he uses for "off-plate" variation and;
4) the balance of his repertoire.
The number of pitches of each type he typically delivers allows us to identify him as a Tight, Loose, Reverse, or Knuckleball pitcher. See "Detailed Match-Ups" for a description of each. The Rating we are refering to, is a calculated number showing precisely how strongly he holds to the identifying Pitch-Mix type.
VMI was not really fazed by the issues brought to MLB by Covid-19 and the ensuing shortened season. In fact VMI is about the only way one can gauge the difference between a league that normally travels both regionally and nationally and a season in which there were three separate conferences, each of which, traveled only regionally.
We are thrilled to have this data for VMI, but not so thrilled about how it affected Tout. VMI's only surprise this year was the number of cancelled, rescheduled and additional double-header games. We did not originally set up our system to be able to record two games' data by the same teams on the same day. So, this year we had to record the data from only 1 game between the same two teams. When MLB chose to name the visiting team the home team for game #2 it could not be recorded by us without creating defects in the home team data.
As I commented in my last article, BaseballTout was affected more severely, so we will not be able to prove our website functionality and effectiveness from the shortened season. Tout picks were incorrect by an unacceptable percentage in all categories except those picked "against" the book in the "Silver Picks" category and (if one would have) hung-in-there, long enough and bet on "all games" would have ended up with a small return on investment at an overall win percentage of 56.7%. From the games we were able to record, the book on those games achieved a 62.07 percentage, so Las Vegas beat us badly.
The "Silver Picks" category in seasons past has shown the best potential return on investment of all the others and the 2020 Season followed suit. This category achieved only 56.76% which is only enough to lose money for the bettor. Only the picks against Las Vegas book in the Silver category at 50% would have made a little money as there were only 4 games in that category, two of which would have generated a small profit after paying the Tout fees. In 2019, that figure would have been $1400.00 at 78.79%. We are confident that figure will return for the next full season.
So, we await the next season and are eagerly looking forward to spring training and April 2021.
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