Posted: 2021-11-10 13:45:40 (ET) [ 554 views ]
Those of you who were with us at VMI for the 2020 MLB season will remember that we struggled to see the typical season out of MLB.
The benefit of VMI has always been to compare the daily differences in environmental conditions for the players and provide you with the probable differences in their performance because of it. These differences cause not only physical challenges to the players, but also psychological and focus challenges.
MLB 2020 was different in the following:
1) No Spring Training in Florida or Arizona
2) No cold weather to create havoc for hitters or advantage to pitchers
3) No traditional All-Star break to change focus
4) No dog days of summer to challenge focus
5) Little previous data on newer hitters and pitchers
Overall, it challenged us more than it did the players.
As you know, our formula is applied to all games of MLB and we ended 2020 at about a 55.7 win percent, which is not good enough to make money when wagering on all games at the same dollar amount. Plus, our special picks were not special, at all.
So, 2021 began a little shakily, as well. In April – we ended the month having achieved only 51% accuracy overall and only the Bronze picks showed promise.
In May, we increased the accuracy level to over 59%, showing a $3,419 return @ a ROI of 8.7%, so we felt good about some of our analysis. However, looking around the industry, we found that most all of our competition did the same, so the issue was that the teams began performing as expected.
In June, we continued to do well at a similar 59% level and added $1381 to the return if wagered at the level $100 per game.
July, continued to be good until a few days before the all-star game and then, we found that the rest of July was a mixed bag until the end of the month. We made up no ground in July and lost what we did make up in the second half.
August was fine again at a win rate of a little over 60% and we added to the ROI another $1380.00, and as you may remember, cautioned you about wagering in latter September. Well, September turned out to be a mixed bag for the whole month.
After some soul searching, and reflecting on previous seasons when we had far fewer analysis tools, the 2021 season, for us and for Las Vegas money lines alike, the 2021 season duplicated all the previous seasons we’ve experienced except 2020. For this reason, we are going to recommend that wagerers only observe April of each season and do not participate. Wagering on all MLB games in May, June and August can be lucrative, but April, July and September are far too risky to wager.
If our newer analytical tools prove to level out the peaks and valleys in the future, we will let you know, but until then, we are not recommending April, July, September or even the post season which added $193.68 to the would be pool at a rate of 5.7% ROI, but could have just as easily eaten into the overall progress made in the good months.
Overall, I don’t think the issue of mixed results is limited to our formula, but to the entire industry. April is filled with too much optimism, July gives the players hope once again that they can get back into the race, and September gives the poorer teams a defiant but more relaxed attitude when playing the top teams. October gives me some optimism that we can profit even though the team power does not stay consistent throughout, but we will need to keep working on the post-season numbers.
Until next season, if there is one, stay safe and have a good football, basketball and hockey season.
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