Posted: 2022-03-17 11:22:10 (ET) [ 484 views ]
As many of you know, BaseballVMI begins each season by tracking games played during Spring Training. So, as we prepare for Opening Day, we will begin to track where each team plays a game and what the temperature, humidity and barometric actual pressure was at game time (ADI). If actual pressure vs media reported barometric pressure is unfamiliar to you, see "Neeley Scale" on this site.
We typically like to have a week or two info on each team from Spring Training, because not all starters play every game and split squad games can give us additional information until the roster is fully defined. So, why is this important? It is because, if a hitter's muscle memory is dependent on the movement amount he has conformed to over the past three to six games, then he will carry that memory into his next game whether he wants to or not. It does affect his performance in the next series.
What we are publishing right now on Pitcher's ADI Report, regarding Spring Training are rounded to whole numbers for ADI. This is because our system is not set up to automatically pull actual temperature humidity and pressure for game times at each of the Spring Training Fields. I am hand entering those and it would take too long (several hours) to be accurate to the two decimal places and would not provide any additional accuracy in regard to the actual experience of the player himself and you would not be able to see it until almost game time. So, when the regular season begins, the automatic feature will be turned on, which is set to the home field of each team and the VMI's will publish, based on the overall experience of each player.
The VMI's for the beginning of the regular season should provide us with an accurate reading on what each every day player's instinct and hitter's eye has become. It sounds like there will be few games in minor league parks this year to end spring training, but we will also keep that possibility open for game conditions experienced by such teams.
We will also be making adjustments to the April formula for BaseballTout. That is; we will use the appropriate portions of our formula to account for the beginning of a new season; plus, surrounding the All Star Break and for the ending month of the season. As many of you remember from last year, we found that most of the predictive index websites struggled as did the Las Vegas Lines during those parts of the season in terms of accuracy percentages on money line wagering.
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