Posted: 2021-10-21 12:23:14 (ET) [ 500 views ]
We won't know for a day or two who will the teams be in the MLB World Series for 2021. There are a few things I'm considering as we approach the beginning of this year's version.
I've been looking closely at the ADI's the current four teams have been playing within, to determiine if there may be something telling about the first couple games.
As you can probably tell by watching the VMI, it decreases to zero after 5 to 7 games. Why? Because once a team has played a series of either 3 or 4 games in any location, the hitters become accustomed to the "Base" amount of movement on all the pitch-types the venue has been allowing due to the air density during that series. Since the density normally does not change much during a 3 game or so, series then the base amount of movement is relatively stable.
The VMI is derived from the ADI, that is; the various ADI's (air density index) the teams have been playing within form the visual memory of the hitters. In a seven game series, the two teams will both approach (game by game) close to zero VMI, or will flip from plus VMI's to negative VMI's or vice versa, during that series. Because they are playing each other, having transitioned from two different environments, we don't know which team will begin with a negative or positive VMI nor how strong it will be until we see the temperatures transitioned from and transitioned to for the World Series.
The two games in Atlanta at 1,000 feet elevation were played in colder temperatures. The first two games in Boston at sea level (essentially) were also cold. The three games at 500 feet elevation in Los Angeles have been reasonably cool and Houston has a dome at sea level to keep the temperatures always median. So if the initial venue for the World Series is at Houston, it will be a different start to the World Series than if it begins in Boston. Likewise, if Atlanta or the Dodgers enter the series with a better record, then the series could begin in either location. Will it be warm in Atlanta or Los Angeles? Will it be cold in Boston? Will the series be mostly played in the 70 degree ranges in Houston to begin?
If Atlanta or Houston wins their series' and end up with the better record somehow, then the World Series could be in the 70's ranges and fairly high scoring. If Boston wins and the weather is extremely cold, the series could be a pitchers dual. Atlanta is the outlier in terms of high altitude hot air and Boston is the outlier for sea level cold air. If those two teams match-up, then the VMI will be significant in terms of predictabilty of game win-loss for the first couple games. Then, as the series continues, the VMI's will be less significant as a predictor.
If Los Angeles and Houston match-up, then the VMI may be less of a factor as both stadiums tend to produce similar ADI's.
Of course, it will all work itself out in a few days, but the VMI's won't be known until the teams and location are all set.
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