Posted: 2020-07-31 08:20:11 (ET) [ 464 views ]
Well, first of all, we finally had a winning day! Hopefully, most of you chose to hold off on betting as we originally recommended. Our picks were terrible and it appears the Vegas money-line was not a whole lot better on many days so far.
Some of the assumptions I have made publicly that didn't turn out to be true are:
1) Many of our numbers would be in mid-season form.
That hasn't turned out quite as I had projected. Some of our numbers come from our deep database, but others are confined to current season performances. At this time, batting averages, era's and win-loss are still too early in the season to help our numbers. In fact, some are hurting our numbers severly. I am still hopeful, that performances will populate our numbers quickly enough to tell the true story.
2) Although the pitch-mix appears to be as normal for most of the pitchers, I did not anticipate so many new starters. I also did not pick up on the fact that some pitchers with new teams will not have data within certain ADI/VMI ranges. Therefore, our system is returning zero's or inflated numbers until those starters have developed a realistic ERA.
As you can imagine, I am reluctant to make any changes in the system to accomodate the weirdness of MLB, until some of these numbers prove to be permanent.
Some of our providers (like Money-Lines) are not keeping up with the schedule, so we are either waiting on them to get there, or will need to seek a new provider.
Toronto and their schedule is not a problem for us. I just need to keep up with the schedule and venue changes. Toronto's home games to be at Buffalo is already accounted for and should closely resemble Cleveland's stadium ADI's.
3) There are some teams that appear to have new life. We will need to wait a little to see how those teams react psychologically to a losing streak.
Feel free to email me if you have questions at; firstname.lastname@example.org
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