Posted: 2020-08-27 08:13:49 (ET) [ 385 views ]
Terrible day yesterday, but it does bring up a subject I will get to at the bottom of this page.
At this time, it appears that the full formula is getting better with more data, but it also shows that the teams are not separated very far yet, because we are only getting Bronze Picks, not Silver or Gold. The psychological factors are not present yet.
Those mental factors that are in the formula seem to be a little weak at this point. It is most likely due to the short season and the optimism remains pumped. Games two of each series are pretty weak and it is probably due to those mental issues. Normally, by September we have some teams bowing out and some teams competing better. Currently, most all the teams are remaining as competitive as in the beginning of a season.
The bottom line is that the overall (all games) are doing better than the Bronze. That is because of the number of picks. It is like betting one team instead of 3 Bronze and 3 Silver, plus a Gold. The only way we could change that would be to lower the spread for each of the pick categories.
We don't want to change anything in mid-stream, because we know it will work itself out. Picking 10 of 11 games as on the 4th, will not happen very often, but it shows that one game is a high risk gamble. Choose wisely and be careful until we all get more data.
GAMES TWO of each series where both teams are mentally competitive will normally go to the opposite team. That is what happened yesterday (the 5th) and our formula is built to pick that up. However, by September more teams are usually fatigued either physically or mentally, so be careful. Watch the GAMES TWO data available to you on BaseballTout financial calculator for more guidance.
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