Posted: 2020-11-03 08:30:31 (ET) [ 410 views ]
Although BaseballVMI proved to be very effective once again and especially helpful from a pitch-mix standpoint, BaseballTout was disappointing. It appears that two pieces of information in BaseballVMI are especially good; 1) the "hits/outing" and 2) the Tight, Loose, Reverse gauge or quantifier, both revealed on the "Detailed Match-Ups" report. (I'm going to need to come up with a better name for that quantifier...)
We have 5 formulas that make up our pick totals and usually the Power Index can be counted on to maintain an acceptable win percentage level. It took the entire season (2 months) for our Tout Power Index to take its place among the good percentage formulas.
Trying not to make excuses here, but truth is truth. Tout was not good and absolutely nothing to Tout about. The other formulas took up some of the slack, so the regular season ended about average, but only in the mid 50% win-loss range and nowhere near what we projected.
Then came the post season and the Power Index was less effective than the other four, because all the play-off teams had produced plenty of good data. So, normally the more psychological formulas play a larger role in the win-loss, that is; win today -- lose tomorrow, etc., but these teams were fresh from the shortened season, the travel being only regionally and therefore much more locked in.
We did not want to change things we noticed in mid-stream, so we let it play out and are now analyzing some of the differences in a shortened season from a full season. We have found that a beginning in July/August is far different from a beginning in March/April...duh. We have also decided that the larger issues were during the regular portion than the post season.
We will discard the win-loss factors from July through September and keep the statistics, but will use the factors from the post season. It will add legitimate competitive games to our previous years' data. With fewer games in post-seasons we cannot afford to ignore the opportunity to add data from October.
The double-headers (which we did not originally plan to track) need to be eliminated from our data-base in order to reflect our true win-loss percent from each of our five formulas. When this is completed, we will reveal the actual win percent of our overall picks and the Bronze, Silver and Gold special selections.
Here's hoping for a great off-season for our society and for sports in general. Until Spring Training, take care and good luck!
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